Monday, March 18, 2013

So you say you want a revolution?

I've read all the classics. Clausewitz. Sun Tza. Marighella. Mao. And the soon to be modern ones as well, Bergen. Coll. Diamond. Bowden.

So you want to wage asymmetric warfare? Are you weaker than your foe? Have an idea that needs furthering? Under oppression and need to fight for freedom?

Then follow these rules.

1. Public opinion needs to be on your side. Whether it is the rightness of your cause, exposing the abuses of others it doesn't matter. Get public opinion on your side. Control the message, the narrative.

2. Technology is important, more so than it was just 10 years ago. Whether in finding ways to negate your enemy's superior firepower or technologic advantage or having a well run website and youtube page, technology is important.

3. Be ready for a long haul. Trying to do things quickly will backfire. Revolution is a marathon, not a sprint if you want it to be successful. Think as long as a decade at least.

4. Get outside help. Have police or military informers sympathetic to your cause. Have an outside source of further support for food, money, supplies. You will need an outside ally to help you when things are tough.

5. Be legitimate. Appeal to something with a wide spectrum. Fringe will never win over the populace and the important public opinion. Today I think the best way is to appeal to something nationalistic. Something that spreads beyond tribe, religion, race. Nationalism can accomplish this.

6. Moderate the amount of 'terror' you engage in. Do just enough to be effective but not so much you lose public opinion or provoke a disproportionate response from those you are fighting against.

7. While "smaller", "weaker" your tactics have to be unconventional. Hit and run. Nomadic. Inventive. Use weapons and tactics to maximize speed and surprise. Play your game. A unique game. Don't ever play buy the opponents rules. You don't have to win, you don't have to control space. You do have to hit and run.

8. Use terrain, urban or rural to your advantage. You have to blend into the populace. Disappear. Ghost. No need to look like a guerrilla. No need to ever present the reality of you our your situation.

The odd historically are against the insurgent, but doing this can give you just enough of an edge you might be the winner.

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